{{ block title }}Welcome to the Experiment{{ endblock }} {{ block content }}

Weather-related Decision-making Experiment

{{ if framing == 'gain' }}

How the Experiment Works

Overview: You'll make decisions related to weather over 30 rounds (plus 3 practice rounds).
How the snow plow scenario works
How the weather and your decision affects outcomes
If heavy snow happens:
If heavy snow does NOT happen:
Examples
You spend If heavy snow If NO heavy snow
0 tokens 100 tokens (safe choice)
60 tokens Held 40 + get back 120 = 160 tokens Held 40 + lose 60 = 40 tokens
100 tokens Get back 200 = 200 tokens Lose all = 0 tokens
{{ else }}

How the Experiment Works

Overview: You'll make decisions related to weather over 30 rounds (plus 3 practice rounds). At random, three of those rounds will determine your payout, so it pays to make good decisions over all rounds.
How the construction site scenario works:
If heavy rain happens:
If heavy rain does NOT happen:
Examples
You spend If heavy rain occurs If NO heavy rain occurs
0 tokens Lose all = 0 tokens Keep 200 tokens at round end.
120 tokens 120 / 2 tokens returned = 60 tokens 200 - 120 spent = Keep 80 tokens at round end.
200 tokens 200 / 2 tokens returned = 100 tokens at round end. 200 tokens lost = 0 tokens at round end.
{{ endif }} {{ if information == 'perfect'}}
Important Information

{{ if framing == 'gain' }} The probability of heavy snow is exactly 60% in every round. {{ else }} The probability of NO heavy rain is exactly 60% in every round. {{ endif }}

{{ elif information == 'signal' }}
Forecast Available

Before each decision, you'll see a FORECAST:

  • The forecast will show either {{ if framing == 'gain' }} "HEAVY SNOW LIKELY" or "HEAVY SNOW NOT LIKELY" {{ else }} "HEAVY RAIN LIKELY" or "HEAVY RAIN NOT LIKELY" {{ endif }}
  • The forecast has some ability to predict outcomes, but is not perfect.
  • You can use this information to help your decision-making.
{{ else }}
About Probabilities

{{ if framing == 'gain' }} The probability of heavy snow is THE SAME in every round, but is not otherwise known. {{ else }} The probability of heavy rain is THE SAME in every round, but is not otherwise known. {{ endif }}
You'll learn from your experience as you play.

{{ endif }}
Important Details
{{ next_button text="Continue to Comprehension Check" }}
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